How Is xG and xA Calculated In Football & Fantasy Premier League?

FPL Strategy

August 21, 2023

How Is xG and xA Calculated In Football & Fantasy Premier League?

Welcome back to FPL Planet and welcome to our post on How Is xG and xA Calculated In Football. In the world of modern football analysis, traditional statistics like goals and assists are no longer the sole indicators of player performance. Enter expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), two advanced metrics that have revolutionised the way we understand player contributions on the field. These metrics have also found a prominent place in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), adding depth to the strategy of building your dream team. In this blog, we’ll delve into the intricacies of xG and xA, shedding light on their significance in both football and the world of FPL.

Expected Goals (xG): The Art of Quantifying Goal-Scoring Opportunities

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric used to measure the quality of goal-scoring chances a player or team creates during a match. Each shot on target is assigned an xG value between 0 and 1, indicating the probability of that shot resulting in a goal. Several factors contribute to this probability, including the distance from the goal, angle, type of shot (header, volley, etc.), and whether the shot is taken with the player’s weaker foot.

For instance, a close-range shot in a central position might have an xG value close to 0.8, while a long-range attempt from an acute angle could have an xG value as low as 0.05. Over a season, a player’s total xG can provide insights into their goal-scoring efficiency and consistency.

Expected Assists (xA): Calculating the Probability of Creating Goals

Expected Assists (xA) is the counterpart to xG and focuses on measuring the quality of assists a player delivers. This metric assigns a value between 0 and 1 to each pass or cross that leads to a shot attempt. Similar to xG, the factors considered for xA calculations include pass type, distance, angle, and the nature of the opportunity created.

A well-placed through ball that puts a striker one-on-one with the goalkeeper might have a high xA value, while a simple square pass from the midfield may carry a lower xA value. Over time, a player’s xA can indicate their ability to consistently set up goal-scoring opportunities for their teammates.

Integration in Fantasy Premier League (FPL)

The inclusion of xG and xA in Fantasy Premier League has added a new layer of strategy for FPL managers aiming to assemble a winning squad. By incorporating these metrics into your decision-making process, you can make more informed choices about which players to include in your team.

Player Selection:

FPL managers can use a player’s xG and xA stats to identify undervalued gems who consistently perform well in these metrics, even if their goal and assist tally may not reflect their actual contributions on the field.

Transfers and Captains:

Keeping an eye on a player’s xG and xA can guide you in making transfer decisions and selecting captains for upcoming gameweeks. A player with consistently high xG and xA figures is likely to be a reliable points generator over the long term.

Fixture Analysis:

Evaluating a player’s xG and xA alongside the upcoming fixtures can help you identify favourable matchups and potential breakout candidates.

Form and Variance:

When a player’s actual goal and assist tally deviates from their xG and xA numbers, it can indicate that they are either over performing or underperforming. This information can help you gauge whether a player’s current form is sustainable or likely to regress.


Expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) have undoubtedly enriched the way we analyse football player performances. These advanced metrics provide a more comprehensive understanding of a player’s impact on the field, beyond the surface-level statistics of goals and assists. In Fantasy Premier League, integrating xG and xA into your decision-making process can give you a strategic edge, helping you build a well-balanced team that maximises your chances of success over the course of a season. So, the next time you’re making your FPL selections, don’t forget to peek behind the curtains of xG and xA to uncover the true potential of your chosen players. We hope you enjoyed our post on How Is xG and xA Calculated In Football and if you did then be sure to check out the other FPL strategy, and analysis we offer here at FPL Planet!



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